A First Draft of History: Week of January 23–30

Andrew Stern

1556 - On this week in 1556, an earthquake in China killed an estimated 830,000

people. Of course it’s difficult to accurately count causalities after a huge disaster, even today, let alone in the 16th century, but still, by almost any reckoning, this was the deadliest natural disaster in history.

The quake struck in the late evening, with aftershocks continuing through the following morning. Later scientific investigation revealed that the magnitude of the quake was approximately 8.0 to 8.3 on the Richter scale. There are many stronger earthquakes on record, but this quake struck in the middle of a densely populated area with poorly constructed buildings and homes, resulting in the horrific death toll.

The epicenter of the earthquake was in the Wei River Valley in the Shaanxi Province, near three major cities. In the city of Huaxian, every single building and home collapsed, killing more than half the residents of the city, a number estimated in the tens of thousands. It was a similar story in the cities of Weinan and Huayin. In some places, 60-foot-deep crevices opened in the earth. Serious destruction and death occurred as much as 300 miles from the epicenter. The earthquake also triggered landslides, which contributed to the massive death toll.

1789 – Georgetown University was established by John Carroll, the Archbishop of Baltimore, making it the oldest Catholic university in the United States. William Gaston of North Carolina enrolled as the school's first student. Despite his Catholic faith, Gaston went on to become a very influential politician in NC and also served in Congress. He is the author of the official state song of NC and the namesake of Gastonia and Gaston County. Prominent alumni of Georgetown include 12 current or former heads of state, most notably former President Bill Clinton, two Supreme Court justices, including current justice Antonin Scalia, and royalty including Crown Prince Felipe of Spain, and King Abdullah II of Jordan. The University is especially well-known for its theology department, although the history program is also okay. It is also notable for having one of the most unusual college mascots – the Hoya – named after the school’s Greek chant, “Hoya Saxa!” which means “What Rocks!” – a reference, presumably, to the students’ strength and determination, not their intellects.

1972 - Farmers on Guam discovered Shoichi Yokoi, a Japanese sergeant who was unaware that World War II had ended and who had been hiding in the jungle for 28 years. Guam, a 200-square-mile island in the western Pacific, was captured by the Japanese in 1941, then retaken by US forces in 1944. It was at this time that Yokoi, left behind by the retreating Japanese forces, went into hiding rather than surrender to the Americans. In the jungles he carved survival tools and for almost three decades waited for the return of the Japanese and his next orders. After he was discovered in 1972, he was finally discharged and sent home to Japan, where he was hailed as a national hero. He subsequently married and returned to Guam for his honeymoon. Apparently he felt there were still parts of the island he hadn’t explored adequately.  

1972 - In Derry, Northern Ireland, 13 unarmed civil rights demonstrators, 7 of them teenagers, were shot dead by British Army paratroopers in an event that became known as "Bloody Sunday." The protesters, all Catholics, were marching in protest of the British policy of internment – imprisonment without trial – of suspected Irish nationalists. British authorities had ordered the march banned, and sent troops to confront the demonstrators when it went ahead. The soldiers fired indiscriminately into the crowd of protesters, killing 13 and wounding 17.

The killings brought worldwide attention to the crisis in Northern Ireland and sparked protests all across Ireland. In Dublin, the capital of independent Ireland, outraged citizens set fire to the British embassy.

In April 1972, the British government released a report exonerating British troops from any illegal actions during the Derry protest. However, a subsequent 12-year inquiry, called the Saville Inquiry, also backed by the British government, found that all those killed were unarmed and that the paratroopers had lost control and opened fire without warning. Some of the victims had been trying to flee when they were hit and soldiers had made up false accounts in a bid to cover up their actions, the report found. These findings led British Prime Minister David Cameron to issue an apology in June, 2010. He described the soldiers’ actions as "unjustified and unjustifiable", telling the House of Commons: "What happened should never ever have happened," and adding, "I am deeply, deeply sorry." 

1986 - At 11:38 a.m., on January 28, the space shuttle Challenger lifted off from Cape Canaveral, Florida. One of the crew members on boards was Christa McAuliffe, the first ordinary U.S. civilian to travel into space. McAuliffe, a 37-year-old high school social studies teacher from New Hampshire, won a competition that earned her a place among the seven-member crew of the Challenger

Seventy-three seconds after take-off, hundreds on the ground, including Christa's family, stared in disbelief as the shuttle exploded in a plume of smoke and fire. Millions more watched the tragedy unfold on live television. There were no survivors.

By a tragic coincidence, the Challenger disaster took place just one day after the anniversary of another NASA catastrophe.  On January 27, 1967, Astronauts Virgil "Gus" Grissom, Edward H. White and Roger B. Chaffee died in a flash fire during a test aboard their Apollo 1 spacecraft at Cape Kennedy, Fla. 

The space shuttle program began in 1976, when NASA unveiled the world's first reusable manned spacecraft, the Enterprise. Five years later, space flights of the shuttle began when Columbia traveled into space. Launched by two solid-rocket boosters and an external tank, only the aircraft-like shuttle entered into orbit around Earth. When the mission was completed, the shuttle fired engines to reduce speed and, after descending through the atmosphere, landed like a glider. Early shuttles took satellite equipment into space and carried out various scientific experiments. The Challenger disaster was the first major shuttle accident.

In the aftermath of the explosion, President Ronald Reagan appointed a special commission to determine what went wrong with Challenger and to ensure it wouldn’t happen again. The investigation determined that the explosion was caused by the failure of an "O-ring" seal in one of the two solid-fuel rockets. The elastic O-ring did not respond as expected because of the cold temperature at launch time, which began a chain of events that resulted in the massive explosion. As a result of the explosion, NASA did not send astronauts into space for more than two years as it redesigned a number of features of the space shuttle.

In September 1988, space shuttle flights resumed with the successful launching of the Discovery. However, on February 1, 2003, a second space-shuttle disaster rocked the United States when the space shuttle Columbia disintegrated upon reentry into the Earth's atmosphere. All aboard were killed. Despite fears that the problems that downed Columbia had not been satisfactorily addressed, space-shuttle flights resumed on July 26, 2005, when Discovery was again put into orbit.  The space shuttle program ended just last year, when the shuttle Atlantis returned to Earth on July 21. 

International News:

More deaths in Syria this week as violence raged while world powers planned yet more talks about the conflict in the country. According to a Syrian opposition group, soldiers and security forces killed 135 people on Thursday and Friday, primarily in the city of Homs but also in Hama and Daraa. Of those reported dead, 18 were children and eight were women. One attack occurred during a funeral procession for a high school student whom security forces killed Thursday. As in past massacres, there are reports that the government used not only uniformed security forces but also militias – essentially hired thugs – to attack its opponents.

Opposition forces fought back, in what is increasingly looking like a civil war. In the city of Idlib, a car bomb exploded at a security checkpoint at the entrance of the city, killing and injuring members of the Syrian security forces, according to an opposition group.

The state-run Syrian Arab News Agency on Friday said terrorists killed law enforcement and civilians, and gunned down a law enforcement member in Homs. It said that terrorist bombs caused injuries in several other cities as well. The government has consistently blamed the unrest in Syria on terrorist groups.

Friday is the day that anti-regime protesters stage countrywide mass demonstrations, held since the unrest began more than 10 months ago. Activists pick a different theme for each Friday's protests. The current theme is "the right to self-defense," which certainly doesn’t bode well for peace in the country, although under the circumstances it’s quite understandable. 

Opposition to the Syrian regime has led to the rise of the Free Syrian Army, a resistance force of military defectors that controls neighborhoods in the suburbs of the capital. The Free Syrian Army, which says it has been gaining support, is in "full control" of the Damascus suburb of Douma, according to one of its leaders.

News of this latest round of violence came as the U.N. Security Council weighed a draft resolution calling on "all states" to take steps similar to Arab League sanctions imposed in November on Syria. The western members of the Security Council have proposed such tough measures in the past, but they’ve been vetoed by China and Russia. Of course it’s hard for the Security Council to act effectively against dictatorships when two of its members are essentially dictatorships. The 22-member Arab League has called on al-Assad's regime to stop violence against civilians, free political detainees, remove tanks and weapons from cities and allow outsiders to travel freely in Syria. On Wednesday, Syria's government agreed to a one-month extension of the League's observer mission, which monitors government activities in various hotspots. However, on Saturday, the Arab League announced that it had suspended its monitoring mission in Syria because of "the critical deterioration of the situation."

The United Nations last month estimated that more than 5,000 people have died in the Syrian violence since March. Avaaz, a global political activist group, said the death toll exceeds 7,000.

National News:

President Obama delivered his 4th State of the Union address on Tuesday. The speech’s opening was a bit unusual with the President addressing, “My dear comrades” before quickly correcting himself with the more traditional “My fellow Americans.” From then on though, it was fairly straight-forward, and relatively subdued in its scope and rhetoric. The speech’s themes: optimism and equity. The President began by summarizing the progress his administration has made in combating the recession. He then proposed a number of specific policies to further the recovery and to promote fairness in American society, including higher taxes for companies that move jobs overseas, the development of domestic oil and natural gas, as well as of course green energy, smarter regulation of industry and the financial sector, a ban on insider trading by members of Congress (many people probably aren’t even aware that members of Congress can pass laws concerning companies in which they have financial interests), a new rule whereby colleges and universities would lose federal funding if they fail to control costs, and of course, higher taxes on the wealthy. 

The president did not advocate the three issues I’ve regularly espoused on this show: mandatory vegetarianism, the reinstitution of feudalism, and an independent Kurdistan, but still, I thought it was a good speech. Of course, I’m a sucker for speeches, especially when they have all the pomp and circumstance of a State of the Union address.

Others though were less impressed. Republicans, not surprisingly, accused the President of stoking class resentment and of advocating failed policies. The official Republican response to the speech came from Indiana governor Mitch Daniels, who faulted the President for believing that government spending and government policies can create good jobs, build a strong middle class or bring into existence, as if by fiat, whole new industries. Daniels also argued against raising the tax rate on the rich, insisting that it would be far more equitable and efficient to close tax loopholes and to limit the benefits the wealthy receive from Social Security and Medicare. Above all, he criticized the administration for failing to control run-away spending, financed with borrowing.  

So, the battle lines have been drawn, and we’ll see which side prevails next fall.

I did want to note just one more thing about the State of the Union address though, and that’s the fact that NC got two shout-outs from the president. Here’s the first one – regarding the renaissance of the auto industry, the president said:  “What's happening in Detroit can happen in other industries. It can happen in Cleveland and Pittsburgh and Raleigh.” I thought that was a bit odd – you don’t often hear Raleigh grouped with rust belt cities like Cleveland and Pittsburgh. Later, the president, espousing new educational initiatives, said, “Model partnerships between businesses…and community colleges in places like Charlotte, Orlando, and Louisville are up and running.” So, Raleigh and Charlotte both got a mention. That could just be a coincidence, or it could point to NC’s new status as a battleground state. Plus of course the 2012 Democratic National Convention will take place in Charlotte.

One other interesting national political development this week: Secretary of State Hillary Clinton told State Department employees Thursday that she will not stay on in the job if President Obama wins re-election.

At a so-called "town hall" forum with State Department employees, Clinton conceded that she is tired after 20 years on what she called the “high wire of American politics.” She added that she would stay on until the President can nominate someone else.  

Clinton has previously said in numerous interviews that she would serve only one term as Obama's Secretary of State. She has said that she loves the job but has found the constant international travel physically grueling, and has longed to work on promoting women's and children's development, writing and travel, and, presumably, consulting, lobbying, and lecturing for gobs and gobs of money.

Clinton’s history and high-profile have fueled constant speculation on her future political plans. She and the White House have vehemently denied a persistent rumor that she might be nominated to run as Obama's vice president this fall. She has also previously denied that she will pursue another run at the presidency in 2016, but not everyone is convinced. Early-on in the Obama presidency, and each time his approval rating dipped, there was even speculation that she would challenge him for the 2012 nomination. I don’t think anyone really believes that will happen now, but it got me wondering whether a cabinet member has every challenged an incumbent president. Certainly there are many cases of incumbents facing primary challenges – most recently in 1980 Ted Kennedy challenged the incumbent President Jimmy Carter and fought all the way to the convention.  On the Republican side, Gerald Ford in 1976 faced a serious but ultimately unsuccessful challenge from President Ronald Reagan who also fought all the way to the convention. In both of these cases, the challenged President – Carter and Ford – managed to earn his Party's nomination but was unsuccessful in the general election.

Now of course that still doesn’t quite answer the question: Has it ever happened that after being chosen for a cabinet position, the position holder opposed the president in the next election? I did some research on this, and although I’m not completely positive, I believe the answer is no – a cabinet member has never run for the presidency against an incumbent. So, if Clinton changes her mind and does decide to challenge Obama, she’d be making history.

There are of course plenty of cabinet members who have successfully run for president after the president under whom they served stepped down. Perhaps most famously, Thomas Jefferson served as Secretary of State (like Clinton) under George Washington before ultimately becoming president himself. I believe the last Cabinet member to run for president and be elected was Herbert Hoover, who served as Secretary of Commerce under Presidents Warren Harding and Calvin Coolidge. 

One last little fact on this theme: no cabinet member has challenged an incumbent president, but in 1940, incumbent Vice-President John Nance Garner unsuccessfully challenged incumbent President Franklin D. Roosevelt for the Democratic Presidential nomination. This was the election in which FDR was running for an unprecedented 3rd term. Garner turned against him over political and philosophical differences, but FDR easily won the nomination and, not surprisingly, chose a new running mate: Henry Wallace, the Secretary of Agriculture.

State News:

Staying with the theme of powerful women stepping down from office, Gov. Beverly Perdue, facing a hard fight for a second term, said this week that she will not seek re-election. North Carolina has never had an incumbent governor choose not to run since voters gave candidates the choice 35 years ago. Perdue faced a potential rematch against former Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory, a Republican whom she narrowly defeated in 2008 in the state's closest gubernatorial contest since 1972. 

Perdue, who lived most of her life in New Bern, worked as a teacher and director of geriatric services at a hospital before entering politics. She served in the legislature and as lieutenant governor before being elected governor, the first woman elected governor in North Carolina’s history.

Since taking office, things have not gone too smoothly for the governor though. She has struggled with a state economy hit hard by the recession and an unemployment rate persistently above the national average. Polling conducted throughout her term has consistently shown her approval ratings hovering around 40 percent.

She has also clashed with the new Republican leadership in the General Assembly, which swept into power after the 2010 elections and gave GOP control of the legislature for the first time since the 1870s. In a sign of the tension, she vetoed a record 16 bills last year.

News of Perdue's decision to step aside set off a scramble among Democrats, throwing open a May gubernatorial primary. Attorney General Roy Cooper immediately withdrew his name from speculation, saying he plans to run for re-election to his current post, but Lt. Gov. Walter Dalton is announced that he will enter the race, and Democratic Rep. Bill Faison of Orange County has also thrown his hat in the ring for the governor's office. At least a half-dozen other Democrats have said publicly they're considering the idea. At this point, the race seems wide-open. If no one gets more than 40 percent of the vote in the May 8 primary, the top two vote-getters will advance to a runoff in late June.

Those reading the tea leaves for signs about how the 2012 presidential election is going to play out may want to take note of Perdue’s announcement. Perdue's victory in 2008 was partly attributed to Barack Obama's surprise win in North Carolina. North Carolina is considered an important state for Obama's re-election prospects, and Democrats decided to hold the party convention in Charlotte in September. The fact that Perdue is stepping aside though may be an ill omen for the Democrats’ prospects in the state.

Cosmic News:

A powerful solar eruption blasted a stream of charged particles toward Earth on Tuesday as the strongest radiation storm since 2005 continues to rage on the sun.

NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory caught an extreme ultraviolet flash from a huge eruption on the sun. The solar flare spewed from sunspot 1402, a region of the sun that has become increasingly active lately. Several NASA satellites observed the massive sun storm.

A barrage of charged particles triggered by this solar flare hit Earth tomorrow at around 9 a.m. EST on Tuesday.

Scientists call these electromagnetic bursts "coronal mass ejections" (CMEs), and they are closely studied because they can produce potentially harmful geomagnetic storms when the charged particles rain down Earth's magnetic field lines.

In addition to generating stronger than normal displays of Earth's auroras (also known as the northern and southern lights), geomagnetic storms aimed directly at our planet can also disrupt satellites in orbit, cause widespread communications interference and damage other electronic infrastructures.

NASA routinely monitors space weather conditions to determine any potential hazards to the astronauts aboard the International Space Station. Based on the agency's assessment, the six spaceflyers currently living and working on the orbiting outpost are not in any danger.

The sun's activity waxes and wanes on an 11-year cycle. Currently, our planet's nearest star is in the midst of Solar Cycle 24, and activity is expected to ramp up toward solar maximum in 2013.

But as astronomers know, it is notoriously tricky to predict the behavior of the sun. We know that each day Apollo will pull the fiery orb across the sky with his golden chariot, but other than that, there’s very little certainly when it comes to the sun. This past fall, for example, solar flares were forecast to interrupt communication and GPS devices. Nothing happened. 

With the world increasingly dependent on electronics, “space weather”—variances in flares and solar wind (charged particles) emitted by the sun—is attracting more attention. Yet despite technology’s vulnerability to solar activity, not to mention the fact that all life relies on it, our knowledge of the star is surprisingly rudimentary. 

Researchers think they have a good idea of what happens inside the sun. Hydrogen, the lightest element and the sun’s primary constituent, fuses to become helium, releasing energy. Eventually, long after humanity has gone extinct or evolved into some other form, Sol’s hydrogen will be consumed. Then the helium will begin to fuse into medium-weight elements. An eon after that, the medium-weight elements will begin to fuse into metals. Ultimately the sun will explode, as all stars have or will. 

Scientists are confident that the sun is in its “main sequence”: it has burned at about the same heat for perhaps a billion years, and it’s likely to stay at about the same rheostat setting for another billion years or so. The numbers involved are staggering. The sun consumes about 600 million tons of hydrogen per second. For every one unit of solar energy that impacts the Earth, 1.6 billion units do not. 

So, we understand the basics about the sun, but not much else. For example, it’s not clear why sunspots form and disappear, or the dynamics of solar winds or many other phenomena.

Knowledge of the sun is expected to improve: NASA’s Solar Dynamics Observatory, launched in 2010, is already producing dramatic photography of the sun, and returning data on solar magnetism. Several solar probes and telescopes will launch in the coming decade, including a NASA probe that will draw closer to the sun than any previous mission. 

For the moment though, at least we can say that the sun isn’t going to explode anytime soon…probably. 

 

Andrew Stern is, among other things, an historian, an Ocracoke resident, and a board member at Ocracoke’s community radio station, WOVV 90.1FM where you can hear his weekly broadcast of “A First Draft of History” every Monday morning at 9am.  

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